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Calibration and Validation of Strategic Freight Transportation Planning Models with Limited Information

机译:信息有限的战略货运计划模型的校准与验证

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Strategic transportation network models are often used as support tools in the framework of decisions to be taken at the policy level, such as the Trans-European Network projects. These models are mostly setup using aggregated or limited data. If their calibration is regularly mentioned in the literature, their validation is barely discussed. In this paper, several modal choice model specifications that make only use of explanatory variables available at the network level are described and applied to a large scale case. A validation exercise is performed at three levels of aggregation. The paper is designed from a strategic transport planning perspective, and does not present new modal choice formulations or assignment procedures. Its main added value is the focus on calibration and validation considerations. Despite the limited explanatory information used, the global performance of the best models can be considered as satisfactory. However, the quality of the models varies from mode to mode, the use of railway transport being the most difficult to predict without more specific input.
机译:战略性运输网络模型通常在政策级别的决策框架中用作支持工具,例如跨欧洲网络项目。这些模型大部分是使用汇总或有限的数据设置的。如果在文献中经常提到它们的校准,则几乎不会讨论其验证。在本文中,描述了几种模式选择模型规范,这些规范选择模型规范仅使用在网络级别可用的解释变量,并将其应用于大规模案例。在三个聚合级别上执行验证练习。本文是从战略运输计划的角度设计的,没有提出新的模式选择公式或分配程序。它的主要附加值是专注于校准和验证注意事项。尽管使用的解释信息有限,但可以认为最佳模型的整体性能令人满意。但是,模型的质量因模式而异,如果没有更多具体的输入,最难以预测铁路运输的使用。

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