Le Monde's Perception of the U.S.-Soviet Strategic Balance: An Update for 1979-1981

摘要

Compares the image of the U.S.-Soviet strategic balance held by selecting Le Monde reporters, and specific characteristics of their reporting on the strategic balance, with the findings of a study covering the years 1948-1973. Le Monde's image of parity in the U.S. and Soviet strategic forces and a forecast of temporary vulnerability of U.S. land-based missiles in the 1980s are in marked contrast to the prevailing image of 1948-1973. Shifts are noted in aspects of the strategic balance that Le Monde considers critical in evaluating the balance, with the proportion that land-based missiles represents in the arsenals of the two sides and the balance in conventional forces and euro missiles taking on importance, and defensive capabilities becoming less important. In 1981, there is a striking instance of a tendency, noted for the 1948-1973 period, to perceive an immediate shift in the strategic balance when a new weapon appears, well before it becomes operational. (Author)