Quantifying and Improving International Space Station Survivability Following Orbital Debris Penetration

摘要

The increase of the orbital debris environment in low-earth orbit has prompted NASA to develop analytical tools for quantifying and lowering the likelihood of crew loss following orbital debris penetration of the International Space Station (ISS). NASA uses the Manned Spacecraft and Crew Survivability (MSCSurv) computer program to simulate the events that may cause crew loss following orbital debris penetration of ISS manned modules, including: (1) critical cracking (explosive decompression) of the module; (2) critical external equipment penetration (such as hydrazine and high pressure tanks); (3) critical internal system penetration (guidance, control, and other vital components); (4) hazardous payload penetration (furnaces, pressure bottles, and toxic substances); (5) crew injury (from fragments, overpressure, light flash, and temperature rise); (6) hypoxia from loss of cabin pressure; and (7) thrust from module hole causing high angular velocity (occurring only when key Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) equipment is damaged) and, thus, preventing safe escape vehicle (EV) departure. MSCSurv is also capable of quantifying the 'end effects' of orbital debris penetration, such as the likelihood of crew escape, the probability of each module depressurizing, and late loss of station control. By quantifying these effects (and their associated uncertainties), NASA is able to improve the likelihood of crew survivability following orbital debris penetration due to improved crew operations and internal designs.