Capacity-Expansion Planning under Uncertainty in the Electric-Utility Industry

摘要

This document basically represents a comparison between theory and practice of capacity-expansion planning in the electric-utility industry. The purpose of the comparison is to provide avenues for further exploration in utility decision making. The focus of the Phase II study is upon the role of uncertainty in the decision-making process. The Phase I effort was directed at modeling the Averch-Johnson theory of the regulated utility. Part I of this report reviews the Anderson study (D. Anderson, Models for Determining Least-Cost Investments in Electricity Supply). The Anderson paper has become a standard reference for capacity-planning studies in the electric-utility industry. Part II examines uncertainty and the behavior of the firm. Part III reviews 5 models of electric-utility capacity planning under uncertainty, and Part IV is concerned with capacity-planning models in practice. (ERA citation 05:035047)