Resource planning model treats electric-utility uncertainties

摘要

The deficiencies of existing analytical approaches for dealing with uncertainties regarding the following factors are briefly discussed: future load growth; lifetimes and performance of existing power plants; construction time, cost, and performance of new resources being brought online; and the regulatory and economic environment. Because all the inputs and decisions are specified before the model is run in these methods, all the utility's resource decisions are made once for a 20 to 30-year period, either before uncertainties are resolved (sensitivity analysis) or after uncertainties are resolved (scenario analysis). A planning model that focuses on frequent and incremental decisions is described. Its key features are explicit treatment of uncertainty, frequent user interaction with the model, and ability to change prior decisions. The ways in which the model can be useful are outlined.