Cost Analysis of Recapitalizing Marine Light Attack Helicopter Assets: A CaseStudy

摘要

This thesis focuses on the development of a spreadsheet model that can be used byacquisition personnel to forecast the life-cycle costs of a weapon system under consideration for acquisition, helicopters for Marine Light Attack Helicopter Squadrons, which provides the basis for the model. The life-cycle costs used are limited to the cost of operating and supporting the system once it has been deployed and represent the most significant costs incurred during the system's life-cycle. In an effort to assist the Program Manager in the decision-making process, decision analysis techniques are introduced An 'add-in' simulation software package allows the assumptions upon which the cost-estimates are based to take on a more realistic stochastic nature. From the simulation trial runs, distribution frequencies are generated which enable the cost analyst to establish future cost with a higher probability of occurrence. Cost sensitivity analysis is also used to provide the Program Manager with a mechanism for establishing which assumptions have the greatest impact on costs and what happens when those assumptions are varied. The major finding of the theses is that these decision analysis techniques can significantly aid the Program Manager in the decision-making process.