Analysis of Factors Affecting Promotion, Retention, and Performance for USMCOfficers: A Graduate Education Perspective

摘要

This thesis analyzes the factors associated with promotion to 0-4, retention tothe 0-4 promotion point, and actual performance ratings. One factor, graduate education, is specifically targeted for detailed analysis to determine its direct effects on the measures of on-the-job performance. A Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) cohort file of USMC officers who were commissioned during fiscal year 1980 is merged with Automated Fitness Report System (AFRS) files and Headquarters Master File (HMF) information to analyze performance differences between officers who have and have not obtained a postgraduate education. Nonparametric, ordinary least squares (OLS), and non-linear maximum likelihood (PROBIT) techniques are used to estimate the selection, retention and promotion models. The results suggest that actual on-the-job performance is an important factor in determining promotion, retention, and who attends graduate education. Graduate education appears to have a positive effect on promotion; however, failure to correct for retention and selection issues biases the estimated effects of graduate education upward. Further study using more sophisticated techniques is recommended to clarify the interrelationships among promotion, retention, performance, and graduate education to gain more information on the magnitude and direction of these potential biases.