Cognitive Complexity of Event-Driven Replanning: Managing Cascading SecondaryDisruptions in Aeromedical Evacuation Planning

摘要

Event-driven replanning is a dynamic process that adjusts plans in progress inresponse to unanticipated events. When an unanticipated event occurs, it disrupts the plan in progress by creating new demands with accompanying constraints that must be satisfied. The task becomes a constraint satisfaction problem that sometimes requires planners to negotiate to manage or relax constraints while they shuffle and reallocate resources that are already committed as part of the plan in progress. Revising the allocation and distribution of these resources changes the plan in progress and causes secondary disruptions with accompanying constraints. The types of secondary disruptions that occur are dependent on the resources that are revised. Each resource that is altered will create different side effects that can ripple throughout the plan in progress and jeopardize future activities. The purpose of this research was to understand the strategies that people use in the event-driven replanning process. The crux of the study centered around three directly observed cases of practitioners actually engaged in the event-driven replanning process in aeromedical evacuation. An in depth protocol analysis was performed on each of the three cases.