Realist Theory and Russian Alliance Behavior: Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy

摘要

This thesis develops multipolar and bipolar propositions for alliance formation, validates these propositions using Russian alliance case studies, and applies these propositions to the post-Cold War international system. Realist theory explains Russian alliance behavior in multipolar (Hitler-Stalin Pact) and bipolar (Warsaw Pact) international systems. In the Hitler-Stalin Pact, domestic influences dominate multipolar alliance selection. In the Warsaw Pact, the emergence of superpower struggle illustrates how structure determines alliance behavior in a bipolar system. In the post-Cold War system, evidence concerning Sino-Russian rapprochement supported a unipolar moment: overwhelming U.S. power allows U.S. action to be dictated by domestic factors while lesser power behavior (i.e., China and Russia) responds to structural stimuli. This thesis demonstrates that realist theory remains a powerful methodology for understanding alliances because Russia behaved as predicted by realist propositions. In the post-Cold War system, when micro-decisions in the United States have global effects, current behavior by emerging powers corresponds to realist predictions. Since the United States cannot wholly distance itself from its domestic, valued-based interests, U.S. foreign policy architects must recognize potential adversaries are more intent on security and regime survival than the advancement of individual rights and democratic freedoms that often seem to shape U.S. international behavior.