Method of Focusing the Attention of the Decision-Maker on Uncertain Information

摘要

Military decision-makers need to be able to synthesize large amounts of information quickly and make accurate and timely decisions. However, all too often, when a decision-maker is bombarded with important information that has an uncertainty associated with it, that information is often neglected. One method of dealing with this type of information overload is through proper data orientation. By reducing the clutter of irrelevant information, the proportions of useful and relevant data can be increased. At the same time, the attention of the decision-maker is directed to the critical tasks or centers of gravity. The WATCHDOG Decision Support Tool is an attempt to develop such a data orientation method. This tool can aid the decision- maker in sorting through large amounts of uncertain information and guiding his or her focus to the appropriate areas of concern. Conceptually, this tool would be used in the 'orient' phase of OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act) decision cycle. By expediting the 'orient' phase, the overall decision process would also be accelerated. The decision- maker's situational awareness would be amplified and the quality and the timelines of a decision would be increased. This thesis effort resulted in the development of the WATCHDOG tool. Experimentation was performed on ten test volunteers with a common underlying experience. Results indicated that the tool proved to be useful in support of the decision-maker when sorting through complex data with high degrees of uncertainty.