Effects-Based Operations. A Grand Challenge for the Analytical Community.

摘要

Effects-based operations (EBO) are defined here as operations conceived and planned in a systems framework that considers the full range of direct, indirect, and cascading effects-effects that may, with different degrees of probability, be achieved by the application of military, diplomatic, psychological, and economic instruments. Current methods of analysis and modeling are inadequate for representing EBO, and this reality should be considered by the analytical community to pose a grand challenge. Addressing the challenge will require changes of mindset, new theories and methods, and a new empirical base. Fortunately, several research-and-development efforts toward this end are now under way, but it will take years for them to reach fruition. In the meantime, these efforts can benefit from some broad analytical considerations.