Improving the Turkish Navy Requirements Determination Process: An Assessment of Demand Forecasting Methods for Weapon System Items.

摘要

Requirements determination is the process the Inventory Control Center Command (ICCC) uses to forecast future customer demands and to set levels of inventory to satisfy those demands. Demand forecasting is the essence of the Requirements Determination Process, which uses a forecasting model to predict demand. Then inventory models use this information to determine stock levels for every material. If forecasts and subsequent purchases are higher than actual usage, the result is excess inventory. If forecasts are lower than actual usage, the result is excessive backorders. Since excess inventory ties up money that could be used modernizing weapon systems, and since inadequate inventory can hamper critical systems as they wait for spare parts or repairs, forecasting future demands appropriately and setting inventory levels accordingly is highly important for an inventory management system. In order to determine whether alternative methodologies offer better performance, we evaluate the Turkish Navy's current forecasting model and compare it with other forecasting methodologies.