The Buttke and Corradino methods for forecasting transit ridership: A comparison study of travel demand forecasting for a small community transit system.

摘要

While the US government's Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 embodied lofty goals, one major problem has been funding. It has been most severe for small community transit systems often the least affluent. The four-step travel demand model is not always suitable since a promising transit system may fail after an initial success, for unforeseen reasons based on poor forecasts. It is, therefore, necessary to investigate this problem. Knowing models appropriate for small community transits' ridership estimation can help them compete more efficiently for federal funding, and industry to develop better systems management. Yet available methods like the Corradino and Buttke are only poorly understood. How accurate are they? This and other questions were investigated by comparing Buttke and Corradino estimates to observed 2005 Denton Transit System ridership. Results showed significant differences between estimates and observed ridership. A hybrid of the two models, however, yielded a more promising result.