Development of Time-Series Based Transit Patronage Models. Volume 2. Handbook for Applying Time Series Models to Transit Ridership Forecasts

摘要

This report describes the statistical procedures for applying Box-Jenkins time-series models to the forecasting of transit ridership. Techniques are described for: (1) generating data sets having appropriate characteristics for time-series analysis; (2) evaluating the data for appropriate model forms; (3) estimating parameters for the model; and (4) applications of the model to forecasting and evaluation of previous changes in transit level of service or fare policy.