Aeromechanics and Vehicle Configuration Demonstrations. Volume 3: A Hybrid Probabilistic Method for Estimate Design Margin

摘要

One of the biggest challenges in the development of a space or launch vehicle is predicting a vehicle's final performance during the initial phases of design. To address the uncertainty surrounding mass growth, program managers added an extra mass allotment to the dry mass of a vehicle--this extra allotment is known as a design margin. To account for all relevant uncertainties, a hybrid method of forecasting mass was developed. This hybrid methodology merges two separate styles of analyzing a development program's uncertainties. Tests for two sample problems were conducted. The first focused on the use of executable morphological analysis (EMA) to predict changes in the Space Shuttle Orbiter's dry weight while utilizing historical information and forecasts. The second sample problem focused on demonstrating the hybrid methodology on the future-responsive access to space technologies (FAST) reference flight system (RFS) fighter jets (F), an advanced launch vehicle technology demonstrator.