The Application of a Hybrid Probabilistic Method for Design Margin Estimation to the FAST Reference Flight System

摘要

Weight growth has been a significant factor in nearly every space and launch vehicle development program. In order to account for weight growth, program managers allocate a design margin. However, methods of estimating design margin are not well suited for the task of assigning a design margin for a novel concept. In order to address this problem, a hybrid method of estimating margin is developed. This hybrid method utilizes range estimating, a well-developed method for conducting a bottom-up weight analysis, and a new forecasting technique known as executable morphological analysis. Executable morphological analysis aims to forecast changes in weight due to requirements and baseline changes to the development program being analyzed. This paper develops executable morphological analysis and applies it to the sample problem of the FAST reference flight system F.