Maintenance Decision-Making Under Prognostic and Diagnostic Uncertainty

摘要

A key challenge faced by USAF maintenance personnel is the uncertainty associated with the information provided by diagnostic tools. This uncertainty results from accuracy issues associated with individual diagnostic tools, as well as inconsistencies across different diagnostic tools. This uncertainty can make it very difficult for maintenance technicians to choose an appropriate course of action. The end result is the possible omission of necessary maintenance actions and performance of unnecessary actions. B6th of these potential mistakes cause additional delays in returning an aircraft to the fleet and increased requirements for spare parts in the supply chain. Therefore, the objective of this project is to develop a methodology based on mathematical modeling that can be used to synthesize diagnostic information and provide a recommended course of action to a technician. This methodology potential could be incorporated into a decision-support tool for maintenance technicians. The activities required to achieve the objective of this project are applied to a hypothetical system. However, the definition of this hypothetical system is such that the system possesses fundamental characteristics like those systems utilized by the US Air Force (and many other organizations).