Project 2008: Notes on the Russian Succession

摘要

Since President Vladimir Putin will leave office in 2008, Russia is undergoing a succession scenario. Such scenarios are the Achilles heel of its political system. But they also have implications beyond the question of who rules at home. Indeed, the course and outcome of this succession have profound repercussions for foreign policy and for Russia's further institutional development, not least as it applies to the relationship between the state and its multiple instruments of force or power structures. And from what we can already see a comprehensive strategy of internal consolidation that entails portraying Russia being a besieged fortress threatened by enemies from within and without, as well as moves towards an ever greater scope of a police state is taking shape. It is very clear that constant attention has been paid to ensuring this succession since the last one in 2004 and especially after it became clear that phony elections could trigger uprisings such as those in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan. The pervasive fear of color revolution that are regularly attributed to the CIS and foreign NGOs demonstrate quite clearly the regime's fear of allowing 'spontaneous' internal political processes to take place. Neither is this fear of unfettered public expression unexpected. The abiding nature of Russian successions since 1991 clearly shows the new regime resorting to consistently high levels of both manipulation and if necessary violence to ensure its perpetuation. In all those previous cases, Russian rulers have resorted to violence and fomented crises in order to secure domestic popularity and legitimacy, e.g. Yeltsin's war with Chechnya in 1994.