Modeling Methodologies for Representing Urban Cultural Geographies in Stability Operations; Master's thesis

摘要

This thesis addresses Department of Defense (DoD) Modeling and Simulation (M&S) deficiencies in military and organizational societal modeling methods. These deficiencies are even more important today due to Stability Operations being an extremely prevalent mission for U.S. forces in this century. Research efforts in this thesis focused on the implementation of three analytic social theory models into the agent-based model (ABM) Pythagoras 2.0.0, in an effort to provide modeling methodologies for a single simulation tool capable of exploring the complex world of urban cultural geographies undergoing Stability Operations in an irregular warfare (IW) environment. While the individual model mappings proved to be somewhat difficult, the consolidation of all three model mappings into Pythagoras 2.0.0 proved to be infeasible with respect to capturing accurate attitudinal shifts. Civilian populaces attitudinal shifts are functions of issues believed important by the various subpopulations comprising the civilian populaces, experienced influences, economic security, and influence exchange across social networks. With the use of simulation, statistical analysis, and cultural and societal modeling, this thesis identifies a major limitation causing significant attitude representation errors within the Pythagoras modeling environment; there is currently no direct link between experienced influences and attitudinal shifts. Funding has been allotted by TRACMonterey and the Marine Corps Combat Development Center (MCCDC) in Quantico, Virginia for Northrop Grumman to implement the recommended modifications provided from this research.