Supply Chain Modeling: Downstream Risk Assessment Methodology (DRAM) Demonstration of Capability.

摘要

The Institute for Defense Analyses developed the Downstream Risk Assessment Methodology (DRAM), for the Defense Logistics Agency Strategic Materials (DLA SM), to allow it to analyze supply chains of strategic and critical materials and the applications or products in which they are used. DRAM allows DLA SM to assess and mitigate risks that may arise from vulnerabilities in supply chains that would not be revealed by analysis of the supply of and demand for raw materials alone. DRAM represents each important production step in the supply chain for a material and characterizes how it operates in terms of production capacity and material feedstock requirements. The fundamental approach is mass flow analysis, from raw material through each step in production. The model can also estimate supply and demand on a time-phased basis under the conditions of the National Defense Stockpile planning scenario and any others of interest. It can represent material shortfall mitigation measures. The model's operation is demonstrated using the neodymium-iron-boron magnet supply chain as a test case. Several hypothetical scenarios show how it could be used to assess shortfall risk associated with downstream materials similar to the way that DLA SM assesses shortfall risk associated with raw materials.