Iran's Islamic Revolution: Lessons for the Arab Spring of 2011. (Strategic Forum, Number 267, April 2011)

摘要

Iran's experience in 1978-1979 and after highlights key factors that could shape the outcome of the political struggles defining the Arab spring of 2011: the quality of regime leadership; the nature of civil-military relations; the training, equipment, employment, and cohesion of regime security forces; and the extent of foreign support. The Shah's military was the main pillar of his rule, but it failed to quash the Islamic Revolution in 1978-1979. Reasons for this failure include the Shah's weak leadership, a military incapable of acting coherently to counter opposition demonstrations and propaganda, and the Shah's belief that the United States no longer supported him. The leadership of the Islamic Republic has avoided repeating the many mistakes of the Shah. It has acted resolutely, created specialized security forces and employed them effectively, calibrated the use of force to prevent escalating violence, and cowed much of the opposition through a campaign of intimidation. The fall of the Shah and the success of the Islamic Republic in repressing its domestic opposition highlight the importance of a number of factors in confrontations between popular opposition movements and the military/security forces of the state -- at least in cases where the latter are unwilling or unable to use massive violence against the populace. Some of these factors might be relevant to the ongoing confrontations between popular protest movements and regime military/security forces in several Arab states. These factors include: leadership; civil-military relations; training, equipment, and employment; morale and cohesion; ability to draw and implement lessons; and foreign support.