On Estimating the Cumulative Probability Curve and Its Upper and Lower Confidence Limits,

摘要

The paper corrects a widespread error in estimating the cumulative probability curve in the case where the probability is a continuous function of some parameter,and gives an approximate formula. Based on that formula a new method of determining the approximate upper and lower confidence limits for the cumulative probability curve is presented. For illustrative purpose the authors provide an example concerning a sensor's probability of detecting a closing target as function of range from sensor to target. (Modified author abstract)