Ensuring Resiliency of the Milk and Dairy Industry in California

摘要

We model the milk and dairy industry in California focusing on the production, processing, and distribution of bulk milk at the county level. We analyze the sensitivity and resiliency of this industry if it were faced with a worst-case disruption that resulted in a massive shortage of milk supply throughout California. The major highways in California are used to connect all of its counties and illustrate how the bulk milk is being distributed. We utilize Attacker-Defender (AD) modeling techniques to determine where worst- case disruptions could occur. This reveals vulnerabilities within the milk and dairy industry. We examine three specific scenarios: (1) a quarantine of each county due to a Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak, or any other event that would cause the complete stoppage of production, processing, and movement of milk in a county over a 7-day period; (2) 1-to-15 attacks on the milk and dairy industry in a 45-day time period; and (3) the isolation of Northern and Southern California over a 7-day time period due to a natural disaster.