Forecasting the Numbers and Types of Enlisted Personnel in the United States Marine Corps: An Interactive Cohort Model.

摘要

This report develops a model to forecast the total enlisted Marine Corps strength at the end of each quarter for one or two years into the future. The method involves a simple cohort model. The model is programmed in APL with a number of features which allow the user to interact in the forecasting procedure. He can introduce further projected retention policy changes or changes in the recruit population which might affect future predictions.