Forecasting the Numbers and Types of Enlisted Personnel in the United States Marine Corps. An Interactive Cohort Model.

摘要

This report describes the development of a model to forecast the total enlisted Marine Corps strength at the end of each quarter for 1 or 2 years into the future. The method involves the use of a simple cohort model, which has been implemented interactively and allows users to forecast the effects of changes in the recruit 2-3-4 year mix, education level, racial mix, or any combination. It also allows for gaming of the continuation rates, and provides long-range or steady-state results of a particular recruitment policies. (Author)