Development of Computer-Generated Phenograms to Forecast Regional Conditions Hazardous to Low-Flying Aircraft

摘要

Collisions or strikes between birds and aircraft that occur annually across the United States result in damages amounting to millions of dollars and considerable risk to crew members. Gulls are involved in more strikes than any other group of avian species. USAF aircraft are vulnerable to birdstrikes during take-off, while landing, and during low-altitude missions. This report describes monthly patterns of gull distribution across the United States and provides a statistical model for predicting the probability of one or more birdstrikes occurring. The accuracy of such predictions is dependent upon the input data for the model being as complete as possible. In addition, the data should be for the specific geographical area for which the prediction is desired. The following types of data are needed: (1) an estimate of the number of birds present in the area; (2) the number of missions flown in the area; and, (3) the number of strikes previously recorded in the area. With this information at hand, it is possible to determine how a change either in the number of missions flown or in the concentration of birds present will affect the probability of a birdstrike occurring.