NATO and Hybrid Conflict: Unresolved Issues from the Past or Unresolvable Threats of the Present.

摘要

NATO's enduring global preeminence owes to its ability to adapt to emerging security threats, but this capacity may now be limited. Today, NATO faces hybrid threats that combine conventional and unconventional means. On the one hand, hybrid threats may not constitute armed attacks under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. On the other hand, NATO nations are both enriched and endangered by cyberspace, mass media, and the growing global interdependency of easily accessible technologies that once were possessed only by nation-states, but now can serve as weapons in the hands of rogue states and nonstate actors. This thesis examines NATO's ability to defend against hybrid threats. First, it analyzes the historical development of internal issues that make NATO vulnerable to outside threats. Then, through two case studies, it examines the external threats presented by hybrid threat actors. These case studies involve the cyber attacks against Estonia in 2007 and the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008. Finally, it summarizes NATO's strategic capabilities against hybrid threat actors. The thesis concludes that NATO's well-established habits of burden-sharing and burden-shifting exacerbate the lag in developing the policy framework needed to deal with hybrid threats. NATO can still turn to its New Strategic Concept and Smart Defense initiative to counter and deter hybrid threats, thus managing threats that cannot be fully prevented.