Study of Mesoscale Probability Forecasting Performance Based on an Advanced Image Display System

摘要

Forecast experiments were conducted to determine the impact of an advanced technology workstation of forecaster performance. In each experiment, probability forecasts for wind, visibility and precipitation in northeast Colorado and severe weather warnings were issued and evaluated. The major efforts over these years have been to develop the sophisticated technology to conduct forecast exercises. Some of this development effort is outlined in this report. The results of the forecast exercises have been increasingly more convincing that the advanced forecaster workstations provide substantial improvement in forecast accuracy for short-term, site-specific forecasts. Various probability forecast exercises that have been incorporated in these experiments are presented in this report. Probability forecasts of precipitation, a major part of the 1983 experiment, and the most recent set of results available. Brier score and skill score result are presented for the precipitation forecasts, comparing the forecasters to persistence, skill. Further improvements in skill are to be expected as future experimental plans are implemented. Keywords: Forecast display systems; Mesoscale forecasting; Thunderstorm forecasting; Forecasting and observation systems; and Mesoscale Observing System. (Author)