Analysis of Youth Labor Force Transition Probabilities

摘要

Many of the enlisted supply research to date focuses on the transition of individuals from high school to the military. Little is known of those who have chosen other options, such as further education, employment, or to remain out of the labor force completely. With the decline of the 17-21 year old male population, research must be directed towards the entire labor market. This thesis uses data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to estimate the transition probabilities among seven possible states for individuals aged 17-22. The states are high school, college, active service, employment full time, employment part time, unemployment, and out of the labor force. Tests are made to determine if the transition probabilities are stable across and independent of time. It was found that the system was generally stable across time but was not independent of age and labor force industry.