Incorporation of Hopkins' Variable Wind Model into a Population-Dose Fallout Code

摘要

Hopkins' variable wind fallout model is used to predict the dose and population insult across the United States from a nuclear attack. The dose calculation is performed by two programs written in Fortran V for a CYBER 845 computer. Hopkins' hotline locator program was modified to reduce its run time, and it is used to locate the fallout hotline as trace particles are translated to the ground in a spatially varying wind field. The second program analytically smears fallout activity along the hotline. To reduce run time and to match the population model, the dose program uses a computational grid of one degree latitude by one degree longitude. A difference of cumulative normal functions gives the average dose across a grid cell. An analytical method was developed to treat multiple bursts against an area target as one cloud. For the winds of 0000 Universal Time on 16 January 1982, a hypothetical attack against twenty-five air bases and six Minuteman missile fields results in 26.9 million fallout deaths. This calculation used 407 seconds of computer time.