Multilevel impact Assessment and Coping Strategies against El Nino: Case of Food Crops in Indonesia

摘要

El Nino events which occur for at least 4 months successively and have a high probability to induce drought and food crop failures, have shown an increase in their frequency during the last 25 years, from 3 events between 1925 and 1975, or once every16 years, to 6 events during 1976-2000, or once every 4 years. El Nino magnitude, shown by extreme negative SOI, also inclined to increase, from averaging -14.7 between 1925-1975 to -17.5 between 1976 and 2000. Likewise, the duration of El Nino events has also increased from an average of 6 months during 1951-1975 to 9 months during 1976-2000. Most of the El Nino events occur during the dry season, April to September. Such patterns of occurrence are disadvantageous for food production in Indonesia because during the dry season farmers usually suffer from water shortages and El Nino events usually lead to rainfall decreases. Consequently, El Nino is inclined to detrimentally affect water insufficiency problems faced by farmers.