摘要：Rural enforced male bachelors issue is a typical performance of Chinese unbalanced population sex structure in twenty-first century. Based on the description on marriage behaviors’ difficulties, individual well-being and daily life support, the social policy on supporting this group of people is analyzed from the perspective of both the area they live and the age they are in. It suggests that it is necessary for the government to take measures to improve the social support policy system for rural enforced male bachelors in order to decrease the possible negative effect they may have on the whole society.%农村大龄未婚男性问题是21世纪中国人口性别结构失衡的一项典型表现。文章从婚恋行为、个体福利、生活支持和公共安全影响等角度分析了农村大龄未婚男性的生存困境，从地区和年龄层面评述了针对该群体的社会支持政策。研究认为：为了应对该群体对社会经济发展全局的潜在负面影响，国家和政府需要采取行动改善该群体的生存状况，完善针对该群体的碎片化的社会支持政策，加快建设系统化的农村大龄未婚男性社会支持政策体系。
摘要：地方政府在环境污染治理中的矛盾局面是导致环境抗争群体性事件不断涌现、升级的根源。对待潜在的或者已有的环境污染侵害行为是采取行动还是保持沉默，地方政府与公众之间因角色的不同而采取着不同的行动策略。文章从博弈论的视角分析了地方政府与公众在环境污染治理中的行动逻辑，认为地方政府未来环境污染防治政策改革的首要任务是突破复杂的利益纠葛，将公众的环境诉求纳入污染治理决策。%The root of the group events in the environmental protest, whichbecome increasingly tough was the contradiction situation of the local governments in the environmental pollution control. Because of the different roles between the local government and the public, they have to take different action strategies about the potential or existing environmental pollution. The article analyzed the action logic of the local government and public in the environmental pollution control from the Game Theory, and the author believes that the primary task in the future environmental pollution prevention is that the public demands in the environmental pollution control decisions should be included when considering the complex conflicting interests.
摘要：在购物者需求日益多样化的背景下，越来越多的企业开始注重购物者营销的实践。鉴于此，对国内外的研究文献进行了梳理，介绍了购物者营销的定义、购物者行为和购物者营销的特征及研究模型，归纳了购物者营销的价值，在此基础上指出了未来的研究方向。%Under the condition of shoppers demand increasingly diverse, more and more enterprises begin to focus on shopper marketing practice. In view of this, authors generalize the research literature domestic and overseas, introduce the definition, shopper behavior, characteristics of shopper marketing, research models, and summarize the functions of shopper marketing, hence on this basis, points out the future research direction.
摘要：It’s a general trend in the“internet plus” era to introduce the latest development of mobile internet technology into the teaching process of ideological and political courses in universities. A better way to cope with the impacts and challenges of mobile phone to ideological and political courses in universities is to use well this technology by introducing it to the traditional classroom. This could solve the long-exist problems of the political courses such as low attendance, low participation and difficulties in managing a large class. Based on the principles of“classroom focus”,“teaching-learning integration”and “precise teaching”, the research team develops an intelligent teaching system for ideological and political courses. The system supports four innovative functions including a soft intelligent teaching system based on the mobile internet and cloud computing technology, multi-dimensional, convenient and accurate identification system, barrier-free real-time interactive system and a universal platform based on cloud computation. All these are breaking through attempts to combine the teaching process of ideological and political courses and mobile internet / cloud computing technologies.%将移动互联网技术的新进展纳入思想政治理论课教育教学过程，是“互联网+”时代的大势所趋。应对时下手机对高校思想政治理论课课堂的冲击和挑战的积极办法就是因势利导，主动将手机引入高校思想政治理论课课堂，以有效解决思想政治理论课大课堂的“到课率”“参与率”“抬头率”低以及实时控制大课堂难等长期不能得到很好解决的教学痛点问题。本研发团队开发的思想政治理论课智慧课堂技术系统遵循“回归课堂”“教学并重”“精准教学”三大理念，初步实现了基于移动互联网和云计算技术的软智慧课堂系统，多维、便捷和精准的身份识别，课上实时无障碍互动和基于云计算的通用大数据平台四大创新，为思想政治理论课的课堂教学+移动互联网和云计算技术做了一点开拓性的尝试。
摘要：农民工群体社会保障建设是近年来学者对农民工问题关注的一个焦点问题。文章对“北上广深”农民工的社会保险参保状况及其影响因素进行定量分析。研究结果表明：农民工的参保状况依然推进缓慢，且不同就业身份、单位性质，对农民工社会保险参保率有着较大的影响。因此，提高农民工社会保险参保率，要从提升农民工就业质量着手，促进他们更多地从次级劳动力市场转入首级劳动力市场，这样才能加快农民工社会保障建设进程，推进农民工的城市化。%Recent years, many scholars focused on the social security of migrant workers, to understand the social insurance participation situation of the group. The paper selected four first tier cities in our country , making quantitative analysis of social security participation of migrant workers in these cities;we think different employment status, nature of units etc. have impacts for migrant workers’ social insurance rate. Therefore, to improve migrant workers’ social insurance rate, we should improve the quality of employment of migrant workers first, promoting them from the secondary labor market into primary labor market, promoting urbanization process in the group.
摘要：通过研究大型场馆活动风险类型、特征及潜在因素，提出以风险辨识、评估和应对为主的风险管理程序。以G高校奥运体育馆为例，应用风险检查表法识别风险，对比应用风险矩阵法和事故树分析法评估风险，基于风险类型提出应对策略。结果显示：G高校奥运场馆潜在风险主要有火灾引起的拥挤踩踏事故，建议从增强防火措施、加强安保管理、强化培养大学生安全防范意识和自卫能力3个方面进行风险管理。%By studying risk types, characteristiccs and potential factors of large venue events, this paper made a risk management procedure of risk identification, risk assessment and risk response taking Olympic sports stadiums in G University as an example from the identification risk by risk Checklist, the assessed risk by comparing to the application of risk matrix and theaccident tree analysis, the measures are proposed. Finally, based on potential risks of Olympic sports stadiums in G University, the paper puts forward the corresponding risk response strategies that are enhancing fire protection measures, strengthening security management, strengthening students’ awareness of security and self-defense capability.
摘要：现代企业对于技术、创新、资本和人才的需求拉近了企业与供应商、零售商、顾客和其他组织的距离，由此，大量战略网络应运而生。文章以研究网络的组织效能为目的，以战略网络中各节点的关系为基础，讨论战略网络的基本分类和各节点企业的关系治理问题，通过对组织效能进行定义和公式化表达，推导得到战略网络中节点数量的最优值，并总结了战略网络中的基本要素，最后以具体案例进行验证，提出了增进网络组织效能和节点企业互信的治理机制，为战略网络节点关系治理研究提供理论指导。%The demand of technology, innovation, capital and talents requires modern enterprises a closer relationship with vendors, retailers and customers;and further generates a huge strategic network. From the perspective of organization efficiency, relationship management of node enterprise within strategic network is discussed in this article. Firstly we will review several canonical papers in related domain, and then the most optimal number of node will be derived from mathematical analysis, more precisely speaking, we establish a function connecting the number of nodes and the organization efficiency, with the help of differential method, we would pinpoint the number of nodes optimizing the organization efficiency and demonstrate this method with empirical research. Besides, In order to improve organization efficiency through institutional optimization, the author proposes mutual trust of node enterprises. By so doing theoretical instruction is introduced in research of relationship management of node enterprises.
摘要：在2008—2009年的经济危机中，美国的汽车产业遭受了严重冲击，为此奥巴马政府出台了积极的汽车产业政策。通过从救助汽车企业和扶助汽车产业发展2个维度的考察发现，在救助濒临破产企业时，政府一度介入企业的管理决策。而在扶助汽车产业时，政府加大公共投资，形成投资驱动；研发政策带动科技创新，形成创新驱动；通过规则制定、消费引导和联邦政府采购等政策，形成了政策驱动。奥巴马政府的汽车产业政策跨越了倡议和引导，进入了政府协同汽车产业发展的阶段。基于上述分析，可进而研究奥巴马政府的汽车产业政策特征。研究表明：这一政策既具有往届政府产业政策的固有特征，如以问题为导向、市场化运作以及以法律为依据等。同时，也具有定位产业方向和更注重研发与创新等新特征。探讨奥巴马政府的汽车产业政策，可为中国目前的产业政策调整提供借鉴。%In the face of the 2008 - 2009 economic crisis, the Obama administration put forward unprecedented auto industrial policy in terms of policy scale and intensity. The Obama administration’s auto industrial policy can be examined in two aspects: first, to rescue the enterprise, and second, to support the industry. When the federal government rescues the auto enterprise which is on the brink of collapse, it involves in the management of the enterprise. When the federal government supports the auto industry, the government increases the investment, and this is the driving force of investment. Research and development policy promoted science and technology innovation, and this is the driving force of innovation. Besides above policies, various measures are adopted, such as industrial regulation, consumption guidance and federal government procurement, and these measures become the driving force of policy. The auto industrial policy of the federal government aimed at not only bailing out the auto industry, but also guiding and coordinating. On the basis of above analysis, the major characteristics of Obama Administration’s auto industrial policy can be investigated, it shares the same as that of normal American industrial policy, i. e. functional problem solving of industrial policy, market-based industrial policy, industrial policy within legal framework, and industrial policy focused on research and development. At the same time, it has its properties, such as accurate industrial identification, emphasis on research, development and innovation. The Obama administration’s industrial policy has important lessons for China’s industrial adjustment.
摘要：“全面二孩”生育政策究竟能对人口发展产生怎样的影响？文章假定今后维持“全面二孩”人口政策不变进行了人口预测。结果可知：城乡全面放开二孩政策并不会带来出生率的猛增和人口数量的剧烈反弹，高峰期最多可以新增出生人口400万；政策调整会提高人口峰值，有利于改善人口结构，延缓劳动力供给的衰减速度，但作用微乎其微。从其他国家的人口发展经验看，生育率的下降趋势似乎不可避免。因此，“全面二孩”并不是生育政策调整的终点，应继续监测生育水平，进一步调整生育政策；建立和完善“家庭友好”政策体系；从社会体制和经济体制应对负面影响。%China’s population trend would be actively addressed by the universal two-child policy. This paper gives the population prediction based on the constant population policy. The conclusions are as follows:The new policy will not bring a sharp rebound in fertility and population size, the peak difference of newborn population before and after the policy will be over 4 million; policy adjustment will improve the peak population and structure, delay the labor supply decay, but a negligible role. From the experience of other countries, the trend in fertility decline seems inevitable. Therefore, the universal two-child policy is not the end of the policy adjustment. It will continue to monitor fertility level, further adjust the population policy; establish and improve the “family friendly” policy system; cope with the negative effects from the social system and the economic system.
摘要：独立后的哈萨克斯坦以新的国家价值理念为指导，在国家的行政、经济和社会领域进行改革与重构，在政治领域确立了以总统为核心的强有力的国家政权，高效而富有活力的行政管理体制；在经济领域里倡导分步骤的、有计划的私有化改革；在社会领域重视包括非政府组织、非盈利组织，大众传媒，政党、民族宗教团体等组织的规范与培育。当前，从国际评估机构的各项指标看，国家治理在政治、经济、社会领域的各项指数都取得持续的进步。实践表明：虽然制度设计是构建国家治理体系的重点内容，但在国家治理体系的构建中还须关注自身国情、民族性及其所处时代的特点。%After its independence, Kazakhstan has set new national values as guidelines for the reform and reconstruction of administration, economics and society. In the political field, a powerful national leadership with the president at the core and an efficient and active administrative system have been set up. In the economic field, a planned privatization reform has been advocated step by step. In the social field, organizations such as NGOs, NPOs, mass media, parties, ethnic and religious groups have been cultivated and regulated. Up till now, judging from all of the index of international evaluation organizations, its national governance has been making consistent progress in political, economic and social fields. It has been proved that although the institutional design is the main point of constructing a national governance system, paying attention to a country's specific situation, national characters, and the features of the times is also crucial.
摘要：With the rapid development of science and technology, human society steps into the era of big data and profound changes have taken place in the areas of people’s production and life style. At the same time, the research method based on the data thinking gradually enters the field of scientific research. The theoretical research and practice of ideological and political education is also deeply influenced by the data thinking. Many new characteristics appear such as digital education content, resource enrichment and so on. Of course, it also provides problems for the ideological and political education, such as the leading role of the ideological and political educator is weakened, technical difficulties of the ideological and political education is more than before. Therefore, the education idea and method according to the changes of the times must be adjusted in the ideological and political education in order to adapt to the social development and improve the actual effectiveness of the ideological and political education.%随着科技的发展，人类社会已步入大数据时代，人们的生产和生活方式发生深刻变化的同时，基于数据思维的研究方法逐渐进入科研领域。思想政治教育的理论研究和具体实践也深受数据思维的影响，呈现出教育内容数据化、资源丰富化等新特点，同时也出现了教育者主导地位弱化和思想政治教育的伦理困境等问题。为此，思想政治教育必须根据时代的新变化及时调整教育理念和方法，以适应社会发展，提高思想政治教育的实效性。
摘要：“Belt and Road” strategy involves a large amount of government cooperation, policy docking and cultural cooperation, so political science researchers need to make political analysis on these countries and regions. Based on the basic research framework of political science, the relevant study is divided into three levels: state power, government decision-making and geopolitical, summarizing the logic of regime security, government policies and political crisis issues, and beginning to set up the research method of solving the problems related. It is recommended that we use the historical comparative methods to study the basic systems and the national conditions, use the system analysis and structure functionalism in the study of the government policy, use the international political theory to analyze the international and regional factors. The preliminary political framework is built for the future research, to provide useful experience for the political and strategic studies on “The Belt and Road”.%“一带一路”战略涉及了大量的政府合作、政策对接和人文合作的内容，需要政治学研究者对沿线国家和地区进行认真的政治分析。基于政治学的基本研究框架，将有关研究划分为国家政权、政府决策和地缘政治3个层次，梳理了涉及政权安全、政府政策和政治危机等议题的研究逻辑，初步搭建起解决相关问题的研究方法。提出利用历史比较方法研究有关国家的基本制度和国情，在政府政策分析中采用制度分析法和功能结构主义方法，使用比较政治方法和国际政治的方法来分析国际和地区因素。通过初步搭建起一个政治研究的框架，为今后的“一带一路”战略政治研究提供有益的经验。
摘要：问题教学法是教师作为教学主体在教学过程中以问题为中心组织教学的方法。问题教学法强调探索和解决问题不仅是掌握知识的过程，而且是提升学生综合素质的有效方式。高校思想政治理论课实施问题教学法应注重以下环节：确立综合性教学目标，遵循问题逻辑构建问题系统，教师要在问题教学中发挥主导作用，激发学生的问题意识，以学生为中心展开问题教学。问题教学法对思想政治理论课教学具有特殊意义。%The problem-solving method, in which teachers are regarded as teaching subject, is a method to organize teaching with problem based learning in the course of education. Problem based learning emphasizes that exploring and solving problems are not only the course of mastering knowledge but the effective way to improve students’ comprehensive quality. To conduct the problem based learning of ideological political theory course in the institutions of higher learning the following processes should be laid stress on. First, establishing the comprehensive teaching goals and constructing the problem system by following logics of questions;Second, teachers should play a leading role in problem-based teaching, and then stimulate students’ awareness of asking questions and solving problems and developing problem-based teaching with student-centered method, which has a special meaning in ideological political theory course.
摘要：Population security is not a traditional definition of security. Chinese population security has already been in a worse trend. The paper discussed both the definition of population security and the relationship between the population security and the national security. The security of population development basically is one of the structural and periodic population security problems. Based on the literature review the paper got several judgments through analyzing the relationship between the population and the environment, resources, society and economics. In the end, the paper pointed out that in order to maintain and improve the population security the principles of people oriented, overall coordination and sustainable development should be emphasized in the coordinating process of population and development. The coordinating process includes six kinds of relationships which are the relationship between the population size and population structure, the relationship between the male and the female population, the relationship between the young and the old population, the relationship between population at present and population in the future, the relationship between family population and society population, the relationship between the population inside the area and outside the area.%人口安全属于非传统安全概念，在我国人口安全已经出现严峻态势。讨论了人口安全概念及其与国家安全的关系。人口自身发展的安全基本上属于结构性、周期性的人口安全问题，基于研究文献梳理了我国人口与资源环境、经济社会的关系，并得出了若干判断。最后指出：维护和促进人口安全需要凸显以人为本、全面协调、可持续发展的原则，在协调人口与发展的过程中需要妥善处理好6组关系。
摘要：Employment is the foundation for people’s lives, the cornerstone for the stability of our country. To grasp the forthcoming trends of employment scale and structure not only helps understand the stage characteristics of economic development but also has guiding significance for making policy of employment, educational training and social insurance. The current employment of China presents a similar characteristics with later stage of industrialization of developed countries. But facing the combined influence from the violent changes of economy and population structure, impact of foreign demand and new technological revolution, the employment trends in China looks complicated and confusing. Through systematic and comprehensive comparison of the long-term employment growth and structure evolution of the developed countries, it shows similar stage features on both the trends of employment amount and the portion of employment among countries, which can provide relatively accurate reference for the prediction of total employment and structure in China. The increase of the total demand for new jobs is slightly lower than the increase of the employment post, so labor supply is still abundant in China; Employment proportion of the secondary industry remained stable and service industry is the main field of creating employment. The declining employment in agriculture is mainly offset by the increase of service industry. In the secondary industry, proportion of the construction industry will continuously increase, the manufacturing industry will stay stable and the excavating industry will decline. In the third industry, produce services will increase and life services will decline.%当前中国呈现与发达国家工业化后期非常相似的就业特征。面对经济与人口结构的剧烈变化以及国外需求冲击和新技术革命影响杂糅的局面，中国就业形势显得扑朔迷离。通过全面系统回顾发达国家长期就业增长和结构演变趋势，发现不仅在就业总量绝对值的趋势上，甚至在就业比例相对值上，各国都呈现出非常相似的阶段性特征。这些经验规律为预测中国就业总量和结构提供了相对准确的参照：未来新增劳动力需求就业总量增加比就业岗位的增加略低，中国劳动力供给依然比较充足。第二产业就业比例将维持稳定，服务业将成为吸纳就业的主要领域，农业就业减少主要被服务业的增加所替代；第二产业中，建筑业就业比例会持续增加，制造业比例维持稳定，采掘业将持续下降；第三产业中，生产服务业比例会提升，生活性服务业比例会下降。
摘要：以现有资本结构理论为基础，试图寻找能解释各种典型公司资本结构调整方式和速度的理论框架。首先以案例分析为基础分析了主流资本结构理论对案例公司资本结构调整方式的解释程度和解释异同。然后结合公司的财务政策，定性分析了主流理论对于资本结构调整方式存在解释异同的背后原因以及将主流理论融合的理论框架。认为从资金供需的角度理解权衡理论和优序融资理论以及市场择时理论，可以将这些主流理论统一起来解释各种典型的资本结构调整方式。同时，发现以计量模型估算的资本结构调整速度推断资本结构调整到目标水平所需的时间，会误导人们对于资本结构调整方式的理解。%This paper tries to find a theoretical framework to explain typical adjustment ways of corporate capital structure based on extant capital structure theories. First, based on the case study, this paper analyzes the explanation of the main capital structure theories to the capital structure adjustment of the case company. Then, combined with three corporate financial policies, the paper discusses the deep reason of the differences and similarities of these theories in explanation of corporate capital structure, and theoretical integration framework of these theories. This paper argues that trade-off theory and pecking order theory and market timing theory, the three main theories can be understood from the perspective of supply and demand for funds, which unified the three theories to explain all kinds of typical capital structure adjustment. At the same time, this paper points out it is somewhat misleading that using capital structure adjustment speeds estimated by the econometric models infers the time of adjusting capital structure to the target level.
摘要：为推进“一带一路”建设战略支点的选择与建构，应加强对象国的政治环境研究，并在此基础上做好政治风险防范。从国家发展模式的开放性与稳定性、政治权力结构的协调性与有效性、外交自主性以及文化包容性等6项指标出发，对21世纪海上丝绸之路的潜在战略支点泰国与印度尼西亚的政治环境进行分析，并提出构造多层次全方位的“一带一路”交流与合作网络，将有助于改善政治环境和降低政治风险。%It is important to strengthen the political environment assessment of the target countries, in order to prevent political risks effectively, and promote the selection and construction of strategic fulcrum in One Belt One Road. This paper adopts 6 indicators, including the openness and stability of national development model, the coordination and effectiveness of political power structure, the independence of diplomacy, and the inclusive of culture, to analyze the political environment of Thailand and Indonesia, which are the potential strategic fulcrum of 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. This paper suggests that, it will be helpful to improve the political environment and reduce the political risks by constructing a full range and multi-level communication & coordination network of One Belt One Road.
摘要：The report of the Eighteenth Congress of the Communist Party of China, put forward the“morality education”as the fundamental task of education. The report puts forward new and higher requirements on college students’ ideological and political education. Relying on the coordination theory, this paper analyzes the coordination mechanism of ideological and political education work. The research put forward four optimization mechanism ways for ideological and political education work: first, setting up the correct education concept; second, optimizing the ideological and political education work mechanism;third, building the collaborative platform of the college students’ ideological and political education work; fourth, cultivating the work environment of college students’ ideological and political education. The paper argued that to enhance the level of college students’ ideological and political education work, we must realize it through the guidance of mechanism optimization, and with the power of management synergy.%中国共产党的十八大报告提出“把立德树人作为教育的根本任务”，这对大学生思想政治教育工作提出了新的更高的要求。依托协同理论，分析了大学生思想政治教育工作中的协同机理，进而提出“树立正确的教育理念，优化大学生思想政治教育工作机制，构建大学生思想政治教育工作协同平台，培育大学生思想政治教育工作环境”等4条优化大学生思想政治教育工作机制的实现路径，以制度优化为牵引，以管理协同为动力，全面提升大学生思想政治教育工作水平。
摘要：从国际视角对全球129个国家的人力资本结构进行了比较分析。研究发现：中国人力资本存量国际综合排名第92位，位于第4梯队。人力资本存量(健康性人力资本、技能性人力资本)对经济增长有显著的正向影响机制。经济增长通过对教育性人力资本的再投入推动创新性人力资本的提升。比较中国和世界发达国家之间的人力资本结构差距，可以看到：未来15年中国人力资本将面临国际适应性和竞争性的重大挑战。应当通过提升职业与产业结构的匹配度，增强教育性人力资本与技能性人力资本的深化，从而为提升我国创新性人力资本做准备，增强我国国际竞争力。%Compared with 129 countries’ human capital structure at the global perspective, this paper found that China ranked the 92 th on the global competitiveness of top 100 , being the bottom of the fourth tiers grouped. Human capital accumulation ( especially, health and skill human capital) has a positive impact on economic growth. When arrived at the middle income level, economic growth will promote the innovation human capital progressiveness according to the investment in education. Compared with advanced nationals, the result shows that China would face great challenge of global adaption and competition in the next 15 years. It is important to improve the matching degree between occupation and industry structure, and strengthen the education and skill human capital, in order to promote our innovation level and international competitiveness.
摘要：证券发行的股价效应不仅取决于公告信息含量，而且还与投资者认知特征相关。结合中国市场卖空制度环境，构建企业证券发行模型，探讨投资者异质信念对企业证券发行股价效应的影响机理，进而利用2008—2011年发行证券的上市公司数据，考察异质信念与证券发行股价效应的关系。研究发现：股权发行股价效应为负，债券发行股价效应不明显；与此同时，股权发行股价效应大小与异质信念正相关，而债券发行股价效应与异质信念无关。研究结论表明：投资者异质信念与证券发行股价效应的关系受证券类型影响。%The stock price impact of security issuance is related to the announcement, as well as to investors’ cognitive characteristics. Based on the feature of short selling situation in Chinese market, this paper presents a security issuance model to explore the effect of heterogeneous beliefs among investors on stock price impact of firm security issuance, and then uses a sample of listed firms that issued equity or debt between 2008 and 2011 , to examine empirically the relationship between heterogeneous beliefs and stock price impact of security issuance. The results indicate that the stock price impact of an equity issue is negative, and that of a straight debt issue is zero. Moreover, the heterogeneity of investors’ beliefs is negatively related to the stock price impact for equity issuers, but unrelated to that for debt issuers. It shows that the relationship between heterogeneous beliefs and the stock price impact is influenced by the type of security.
摘要：The theory research on “the lost only child family” focused on the perspective of problems at first and it could really help us to have a better understanding of this issue. But the research on the perspective of problems ignored the abilities and resources owned by the family members of“the lost only child family”, the perspective of strengths was a supplement. The practical intervention research explored the conditions of the family members of“the lost only child family” and the practical intervention methods by the relevant professional practices. This type of research shifted the research paradigm on “the lost only child family” from “perspective of theory” to “perspective of practical intervention”, while it was still at primary stage as a whole. The social policy research discussed the deficiencies of the existing policies and offered some relevant suggestions from two categories of social security and social assistance. While the orientation of“the lost only child family” social policy is not clear and the research on specific policies is not sufficient. As a summary, we can promote the development of the research on “the lost only child family” by increasing the number of practical intervention research and research classification as well as making an intensive study of the micro psychological problems of the family members, clearing the orientation of “the lost only child family” social policy and increasing the number of research on specific policies.%失独家庭理论的研究最初以问题视角为主，对全面认识和了解失独家庭相关问题具有启示意义，但问题视角对失独家庭成员的潜能和资源的挖掘缺乏关注，而优势视角对失独家庭的问题研究则是一个弥补。在实务研究中，研究者通过实际的干预，探索相关实务介入方法，实现了失独家庭问题研究从“理论”向“实务”的范式转换，但就整体而言实务研究仍处于初级阶段。在失独家庭的社会政策研究中，研究者从社会保障和社会救助2个范畴探讨了现有政策的不足并提出了完善的建议，但是失独家庭的社会政策定位尚不明确，并且相关具体政策的研究相对缺乏。因此，失独家庭的研究可以通过增加行动研究的数量、深化相关实务研究、加强失独家庭的分类研究、明确失独家庭社会政策定位和细化相关社会政策的研究等方面来拓展失独家庭问题的研究。
摘要：金融结构不存在一个放之四海而皆准的最优标准，一国的最优金融结构由特定时期的国情所决定。金融结构优化是实现最优金融结构，进而促进经济健康发展的重要手段。系统梳理了金融结构理论的演变历程，分析了金融结构的优化目标，总结了金融结构的优化方法。在文献研究基础上，明确后续研究的突破口在于如何针对金融结构与经济发展多目标的复杂交互关系，实现金融结构的多目标优化。为此，提出基于进化算法的金融结构多目标优化研究新视角，明确其中的关键问题，并对后续研究做出展望。%Financial structure optimization ( FSO) is a powerful approach of achieving optimal financial structure and then promoting economic development. Firstly, the development process, optimization goal and optimization methods of financial structure are overviewed and analyzed. Literature analysis shows that recognizing the complex interaction between financial structure and economic development and realizing the multi-objective FSO ( MOFSO ) are the key problems of FSO. Then, a new research perspective and its key questions of MOFSO are proposed. Finally, the future research directions are discussed.
摘要：2003—2014年，国家实施多项大力扶持东北老工业基地的振兴政策，东北经济在保持了较好增长态势的同时，人口却大量外流。深刻理解经济发展中的人口外流现象，有助于制定合理的政策缓解人口外流趋势，并利用人口变化与经济发展之间的关系有效促进经济持续增长。基于统计数据的分析，特别是基于黑龙江省县域面板数据的系统GMM分析，得出结论认为：东北重工业化的产业发展策略和行政主导的城镇化模式是导致人口外流的重要原因，其后果是工业化和城镇化的虚高，进而使得就业增长不足，城镇化推进缓慢。因而，工业化和城镇化的变革、配套措施的跟进和市场化进程的加快是缓解东北人口外流的重要举措。%Until 2014 , the economy in northeast China has been growing steadily since the central government took measures to promote the old industrial base of northeast China. Meanwhile, lots of people moved out of there, especially the urban residents. Understanding this paradox is a key to take measures to curb the emigration trend in the northeast China, as well as to promote the regional economic growth using the relationship between the population change and the economic growth. Analysis on the statistic data, especially on SYS GMM regression of county panel data of Heilongjiang province, we concluded that the industrial strategy of the heavy industrialization and urbanization with administrative intervene is the important factors that led to the emigration of the northeast China. Double pseudo high levels of the industrialization and urbanization made the employment grow slowly. Without the sufficient employment, the emigration is inevitable. Thus, the great change on the industrialization and urbanization, along with the corresponding measures as well as deepening of marketization is the important way of changing the emigration in northeast China.
摘要：欧亚经济联盟的贸易救济措施(反补贴、反倾销、保障措施)是中国商品进入欧亚市场的主要障碍之一。为更好实现丝绸之路经济带与欧亚经济联盟对接，除基础设施、产能、金融、人文等务实领域的合作外，制度和规则亦逐渐成为重要议题。针对欧亚经济联盟各成员国当前国情，考虑到联盟的贸易救济措施与世贸规则和欧盟标准比较相近的特点以及部分成员担心中国可能侵蚀其市场的心理，中国企业首先要争取和解，避免反倾销制裁生效，然后宜本着“先易后难、先急后缓”等原则，从中国与联盟规则内容最接近的领域入手，从现有务实项目最急迫解决的问题入手，加快双方制度和规则协调。%The Eurasian Economic Union ( EEU ) is significant for the Silk Road Economic Belt. However, EEU’s trade sanctions measures, including anti-subsidy, anti-dumping and supporting measures have caused some side effects on Chinese companies to some degree. As the result, China is the largest trade partner of the EEU and also the largest victim of its trade sanction measures. Till now, the measure of the anti-dumping tax has become the main obstacle which prevents the Chinese commodity to enter Eurasian market. Besides the pragmatic cooperation fields such as infrastructure, capacity, finance and humanities, system and rules are also important subjects to be integrated. China and the members of EEU are proposed to refer to Europe Union criteria to strengthen cooperation fields like system and rules so as to provide more convenience for the cooperation between the companies of two sides. At present the main obstacle of the system integration is that the members of EEU are worried about China’s economic power which will be too strong to erode its market.
摘要：介绍了近期摩尔多瓦出现的不间断的反对派抗议活动，分析了其原因，有经济原因，也有社会分化的政治因素，而且西方国家的插手也加剧了其内部矛盾。但这场动荡不会演变成一场大规模危机。摩尔多瓦独立以来，中摩合作已取得一定成果。但摩尔多瓦政局不稳对“一带一路”倡议的实施会带来了一定的风险和挑战。在“一带一路”框架下中国如何开展对摩尔多瓦的基础设施建设投资及其他活动，还需要对其局势有清醒认识和判断。%The article describes the ongoing protest activity of the opposition in Moldova recently, analyses the reasons, which included economic reasons and internal political contradiction of social differentiation. At the same time, intervention from the West has intensified its internal contradictions. However, as matters stand, the unrest in Moldova will not turn into a big crisis. Since the independence of Moldova, some cooperation achievements have been made between China and Moldova. However, the political instability of Moldova brings certain risks and challenges to the implementation of“The Belt and Road”. Having a clear understanding and judgments of the situation in Moldova are good for Chinese infrastructure investment and other activities in Moldova under the framework of “The Belt and Road”.
摘要：名义账户利率是名义账户制度的核心要素，也是选择名义账户利率指数化变量的主要依据。探讨名义账户利率实质上就等同于研究现收现付制养老金制度的内部收益率问题。在厘清现收现付制经济含义基础上，通过对相关理论的梳理、归纳和推演，名义账户制利率本质上就是“黄金律”条件下的经济增长率。但是，因为受制于经济、人口和养老金制度实际运行状况，这一利率理论应用局限性也非常明显，从而为进一步的应用讨论提供支持和借鉴。%The determination of the interest rate is the core element of the notional defined contribution ( NDC) system, and it is also the main basis for the choice of the interest rate index. The interest rate is essentially equivalent to internal rate of return of PAYG pension system. By combing the relevant theory, induction and deduction, the interest rate is essentially the economic growth rate at the Golden Rule level rule. However, due to subject to the actual operation of the economic, population and pension system, there are very obvious limitations for the application of the theory.
摘要：Yan Zhen takes “people” as the core elements of the narrative of his novels. Through the combination and change of the relationship between male and female love to promote the plot development , in advance of the rhythm of the plot of the novel on the survival of thinking and the spirit to observe;through a combination of one or more groups of characters in the control and in the unity of opposites to explore soul, expression of philosophical thinking; through dummy historical figures, constitute the spirit background and spiritual undercurrent, let the characters in the novel in the difficult survival situation to carry out the spirit of reference, life enlightenment. In the combination of multiple characters, Yan Zhen’s novels form a vertical and horizontal cross, three-dimensional multi-dimensional novel narrative coordinate system, so as to reveal the survival situation and spiritual dilemma of the characters in the transition period.%阎真以“人”作为其小说的叙事核心要素。通过对男女情爱关系的组合和变动来推动小说情节发展，在情节节奏性的推进中实现小说对生存的思考和对精神的体察；通过一组或多组人物的对照组合，在矛盾统一中探寻人物心灵，表达哲学思考；通过虚设历史人物，构成精神背景和精神潜流，让小说中的人物在艰难的生存处境中进行精神参照，获得生命的启示。在多重人物组合中，阎真的小说形成了纵横交叉，立体多维的小说叙事坐标体系，从而对转型期人物生存处境及精神困境进行了颇富深度的揭示。
摘要：The article aimed to illustrate the way of multi-pillar pension system in China by analyze the multi-pillar theory, calculations based on life cycle theory and practices in OECD countries. The experiences in OECD were shown as such:the public pension system was the constraint factor of the other l old age insurance system. While in China, the special age structure and pension system made the reform less likely happen in recent years. At last, the author draws conclusions:the special situation in China makes the first pillar as the constraint factor for the others, but the three pillars will fuse together in the future.%旨在通过梳理多支柱理论的发展与实践，总结OECD国家经验及在利用生命周期理论进行精算的基础上，推演中国多支柱养老保险制度的发展路径。分析显示：第一支柱是第二、第三支柱发展的外部条件和制约因素，中国特有的经济、人口与制度发展路径，使公立养老金制度短期内对其他支柱形成了较强的制约作用，因而中国养老保险制度体系发展宜采用多阶段策略，首先完善第一支柱，同时扩展第二、第三支柱，做好应对未来制度变革的准备。
摘要：Gender disguise is a common narrative form of opera and novel in Ming and Qing Dynasty. It is different from Western traditional sexology which refer gender disguise as psychosexual abnormal, the change of gender in gender disguise opera in Ming and Qing Dynasty is an independent identity practice, aims at reflecting the traditional deep-rooted cultural values and gender discipline. It is not only a reproduction of realistic gender character norms but also an arrogation and adjustment of stable gender narration. Gender disguise opera effectively promote the construction of dramatic environment, and gave birth to the artistic image with androgyny, which highlight the profound changes of the gender plays, deeply graved with cultural trace of specific historical period.%易性乔装是明清戏曲、小说常用的一种叙事方式，其与西方传统性学常将易性装扮视为性心理异常不同，明清易性乔装剧中的性别换装是独立自主的身份实践，映现传统社会根深蒂固的文化观念与性别规训，既是现实性别角色规范的复现，也是对固置的性别论述的调整与僭越。性别换装表演有力推进了戏剧性情境的建构，并孕育双性同体的艺术形象，凸显了性别扮演的深刻变迁，深深烙刻着民族特定历史时期的文化印痕。