EssencePS CEO and chief developer Nigel Goodwin has brought to our attention a paper presented at the recent SPE Reservoir Simulation Symposium which. offers a technical description of methods and algorithms used in EssRisk, Essence's software flagship for history matching, uncertainty-based prediction and production optimization. Goodwin argues that brute force Markov chain Monte Carlo methods cannot be applied exhaustively to the complex field of fluid flow simulation. Even fast proxy models may fail to represent the full range of uncertainty. Moreover, the 'black box' nature of proxy models make their evaluation hard. Engineers generally prefer straightforward deterministic models.
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