Technical, social and political framework for future mobility

摘要

The financial crisis raises the question of whether the accompanying declines in vehicle sales and the shift towards smaller vehicle segments are attributable merely to a lack of financial means or whether this is the precursor of a change in attitude towards individual mobility and a rising need for increased sustainability in personal purchasing decisions. Numerous signs are indicating that attitudes towards individual mobility are changing around the world. Sustainable mobility is in demand. Politicians are reacting and are specifically promoting alternative drives, particularly electric mobility, with their recovery packages. In Japan, this is leading to a boom in hybrid vehicles. In the USA, the "stimulus package" is being used to establish development and production capacities for electric vehicle modules in American companies. China has declared market leadership in electric mobility to be a strategic objective, and is creating a lead market in government vehicles. And what is happening in Europe? European politicians are promoting research into electric mobility with comparatively scant funds. Programmes at the national level are employing far more funds, but are not networked across Europe. At the same time, customer expectations are soaring beyond measure and are vastly overshooting what is genuinely achievable. What is therefore required is to meet these expectations on one hand without overtaxing the technology and entering the risky realm of subsidies on the other. One important element of this is customer information, but also motivation. Today, electric vehicles are far away from marketability due to their cost structure. How can customers therefore be motivated to accept higher costs with limited benefit? This acceptance is necessary to achieve the gentle increase in unit numbers which will enable costs to be reduced by effects of scale. Electric vehicles must therefore be marketed via a corresponding image which gives consideration to the zeitgeist and is highly emotional at the same time. The current, purely technical explanations are by no means sufficient to achieve this. Social transformation is obviously leading to a change in user and purchasing behaviour. Whilst passenger cars were previously all-rounders, it is to be anticipated that vehicles tailored more towards the personal need for mobility will be desired in the future. Other driving profiles may possibly be covered by pooling or sharing concepts, or by second and third vehicles in households with the corresponding financial means. New market segments will therefore be formed, e.g. the typical urban vehicle which can preferably be operated fully electrically, and plug-in vehicles for interregional journeys. Long-distance and heavy haulage traffic will continue to be dominated by vehicles with pure combustion engines and highly efficient drive systems.