Prediction of air-pollution episodes

摘要

Mathematical models that can properly predict dispersion and transport of atmospheric pollutants are an essential element in the development of warning and control strategies. Proper forecasts of atmospheric boundary-layer height and its vertical mean wind speed provide a basis for predictions of air-pollution concentrations under meteorological conditions that vary horizontally, vertically, and temporally. A prognostic model is developed to predict the ventilation factor using forecast values of meteorological elements normally provided from meteorological agencies, in addition to specifications of terrain. Therefore, the ventilation factor and concentrations of pollutants could be predicted. Subsequent to the dependence of the present method on easily obtainable data, it avoids the non-generality and uncertainty followed from the application of some empirical relations. Even more, the method seems to provide high accuracy in validity tests.