INFLUENCE OF INPUT DATA QUALITY ON SIMULATING AN AIR-POLLUTION EPISODE

摘要

This paper gives an outline to the influence of the geophysical, meteorological, emission and receptor input parameters' quality when simulating an air pollution episode. A CALPUFF simulation of a short winter SO_2 air pollution episode in the region City of Skopje is conducted. Simulated ground-concentrations of SO_2, have been compared with routinely registered 24hour ground-concentrations. Soundings from one upper-air and six surface stations were used for the CALMET simulation of the meteorological conditions. Emission rates of the point sources were applied according to the Register of air polluters. Temporally constant emission rates were presumed, due to the lack of detailed emission dynamics. For the same reason, emissions from domestic heating and traffic were excluded from the scope of this study. The comparison of the measured 24hour ground―concentrations with the simulated ones, shows preservation of the trends of formation and development of the concerned air―pollution episode. Due to the non-satisfactory quality of the input parameters, all receptor points show an over prediction ranging from a factor of 0.18 to 1.84. The herein conducted analysis indicates the necessity of a thorough and quality approach when acquiring and/or modeling the most influential air pollution factors, aiming a quality diagnosis and prognosis of air pollution over a region concerned.