A Less Tight Oil Market in Prospect in 2005?

摘要

Since oil prices reached a peak of over US55/b on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) in October,they have fallen back spectacularly.Does this downturn signify that the international oil market is now far less tight than it has been over the past few months and that this easing of market conditions will last and gain strength through 2005? The question deserves to be studied closely if we are to try and avoid repeating the forecasting errors that led the markets to under-estimate the tensions arising from the dynamics of supply and demand during part of 2004,tensions that resulted in a sharp upsurge in prices.