Prediction of acute and chronic complications by a new computer simulation model for type 1 and type 2 diabetes: the Diabetes Mellitus Model (DMM)

摘要

An epidemiological simulation model for patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes (the Diabetes Mellitus Model (DMM)) was developed based on published clinical and observational data and expert estimations, for prediction of short- and long-term outcomes in defined patient cohorts. A computer program was developed with an interface for definition of patient cohorts and for results display. Patient cohorts can be user-defined by gender, age, duration and type of diabetes, glycosylated haemoglobin, blood pressure, albumin excretion and therapy, Based on riskequations and current risk variable levels, the DMM simulates complications over 10 years (hypoglycaemia; retinopathy; blindness; microalbuminuria and macroalbuminuria; end-stage renal disease; neuropathy; amputation; diabetic foot syndrome; myocardial infarction; stroke; angina pectoris; heart failure; and death). The DMM is suitable for simulation of complications and for estimation of clinical implications of various diabetes care strategies, and may be particularly valuable in lieu of long-term clinical trial data.