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Spectra of conditionalization and typicality in the multiverse

机译:多层典型化的条件化和典型程度

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An approach to testing theories describing a multiverse, that has gained interest of late, involves comparing theory-generated probability distributions over observables with their experimentally measured values. It is likely that such distributions, were we indeed able to calculate them unambiguously, will assign low probabilities to any such experimental measurements. An alternative to thereby rejecting these theories, is to conditionalize the distributions involved by restricting attention to domains of the multiverse in which we might arise. In order to elicit a crisp prediction, however, one needs to make a further assumption about how typical we are of the chosen domains. In this paper, we investigate interactions between the spectra of available assumptions regarding both conditionalization and typicality, and draw out the effects of these interactions in a concrete setting; namely, on predictions of the total number of species that contribute significantly to dark matter. In particular, for each conditionalization scheme studied, we analyze how correlations between densities of different dark matter species affect the prediction, and explicate the effects of assumptions regarding typicality. We find that the effects of correlations can depend on the conditionalization scheme, and that in each case atypicality can significantly change the prediction. In doing so, we demonstrate the existence of overlaps in the predictions of different "frameworks" consisting of conjunctions of theory, conditionalization scheme and typicality assumption. This conclusion highlights the acute challenges involved in using such tests to identify a preferred framework that aims to describe our observational situation in a multiverse.
机译:一种测试描述多层的理论的方法,该理论已经达到了较晚的兴趣,涉及将理论产生的概率分布与其实验测量值进行比较。很可能是这样的分布,我们是否确实能够明确计算它们,将对任何此类实验测量分配低概率。由此拒绝这些理论的替代方案是通过限制我们可能出现的多层的域来调涉及所涉及的分布。然而,为了引出清晰的预测,需要进一步假设典型的我们是所选领域的典型。在本文中,我们研究了有关条件化和典型性的可用假设光谱之间的相互作用,并提取在混凝土设置中的这些相互作用的影响;即,关于预测对暗物质有显着贡献的物种总数。特别地,对于所研究的每个条件化方案,我们分析了不同暗物质物种的密度之间的相关性如何影响预测,并阐明假设关于典型性的影响。我们发现相关性可以取决于条件化方案,并且在每种情况下都可以显着改变预测。在这样做时,我们展示了在不同“框架”的预测中的存在重叠,包括理论,无调化方案和典型假设的粘合。这一结论突出了使用此类测试所涉及的急性挑战,以确定旨在描述我们在多层的观测情况的优选框架。

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