Bayesian econometrics and forecasting

摘要

Contemporary Bayesian forecasting methods draw on foundations in subjective probability and preferences laid down in the mid-twentieth century, and utilize numerical methods developed since that time in their implementation. These methods unify the tasks of forecasting and model evaluation. They also provide tractable solutions for problems that prove difficult when approached using non-Bayesian methods. These advantages arise from the fact that the conditioning in Bayesian probability forecasting is the same as the conditioning in the underlying decision problems.