Macro-Econometric Forecasting for During Periods of Economic Cycle Using Bayesian Extreme Value Optimization Algorithm

摘要

This paper aims to computationally analyze the extreme events which can be described as crises or unusual times-series trends among the macroeconomic variables. These data are statistically estimated by employing the optimally extreme point for supporting policy makers to specify the economic expansion target and economic warning level. The Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) applying Bayesian inference and Newton-optimal method are employed to complete the researchs solutions and estimate the time-series variables such as GDP, CPI, FDI, and unemployment rate collected during 1980 to 2015. The results show there are extreme values in the trend of macroe-conomic factors in Thailand economic system. This extreme estimation is presented as an interval. In addition, the empirical results from the optimization approach state that the exactly extreme points can be computationally found. Ultimately, it is clear that the computationally statistical approach, especially Bayesian statistics, is inevitably important for econometric researches in the recent era.