Multinomial Logit Model of Pedestrian Crossing Behaviors at Signalized Intersections

摘要

Pedestrian crashes, making up a large proportion of road casualties, are more likely to occur at signalized intersections in China. This paper aims to study the different pedestrian behaviors of regular users, late starters, sneakers, and partial sneakers. Behavior information was observedmanually in the field study. After that, the survey teamdistributed a questionnaire to the same participant who has been observed, to acquire detailed demographic and socioeconomic characteristics as well as attitude and preference indicators. Totally, 1878 pedestrians were surveyed at 16 signalized intersections in Nanjing. First, correlation analysis is performed to analyze each factor's effect.Then, five latent variables including safety, conformity, comfort, flexibility, and fastness are obtained by structure equation modeling (SEM). Moreover, based on the results of SEM, a multinomial logit model with latent variables is developed to describe how the factors influence pedestrians' behavior. Finally, some conclusions are drawn from the model: (1) for the choice of being late starters, arrival time, the presence of oncoming cars, and crosswalk length are themost important factors; (2) gender has the most significant effect on the pedestrians to be sneakers; and (3) age is the most important factor when pedestrians choose to be partial sneakers.