Fresh Tanker Orders Could Trigger Clean Rate Collapse

摘要

Relatively high product tanker rates are tempting shipowners to invest in more clean tonnage-potentially triggering a new phase in the boom-bust cycle for which the shipping market is famous. Lower jet fuel transport costs could help boost arbitrage traffic into import-dependent Europe, say traders, who add that supplies into the Mediterranean have recently been squeezed by a shortage of medium-range tankers. "Shipowners have been hypnotized by relatively good earnings [on product tankers]," says Mark Jenkins, a senior tanker analyst at shipbrokers Simpson, Spence and Young who describes shipowner behaviour as "herd-like" (JFI May30,'11). "The danger [for the freight market] is they pile in en masse like they have done with crude [tankers], triggering the sort of market collapse we see now." Day rates on the main UK Continent to US Atlantic Coast MR tanker rate-which reflects mainstay transAtlantic gasoline flows-have averaged $12,300 so far this year, up from an average $8,400 per day over the course of 2010. In stark contrast, Westbound very large crude carrier (VLCC) rates have scraped barely $2,500/day so far this year, down from $13,650/day last year. Jenkins says that once voyage expenses have been netted out, Mideast Gulf to Europe/US journeys end up costing shipowners $5,500/day. Rotterdam bunker fuel prices are currently 33% higher than they were at the start of the year and twice what they were a year ago, prompting many captains to "slow steam" in a bid to conserve fuel. But even loss-making journeys are preferable to unemployment and the risk a vessel loses its majorapproval (JFI Feb.14,'11). There is also a chance Westbound tankers can pick up a Japan-bound crude cargo from South America or West Africa on the return journey. Clean freight rates are weaker on the Mideast Gulf to Asia route, with the year to date figure of $7,500/day down on last year's $10,000/day average.