Applying Fuzzy Risk Assessment to Transmission Expansion Planning in Deregulated Power Systems

摘要

Deregulation of power systems has changed the conventional transmission expansion planning (TEP) methods. Uncertainty is the essential character of deregulated power systems. Consequently, new TEP methods must be proposed to fulfill the new circumstances. In this paper, an approach for TEP considering new objectives and uncertainties in restructured environments is presented. For alleviating the drawbacks of previous approaches in selecting final optimal plans, fuzzy risk assessment is adopted. While methods introduced so far are essentially based on dc load flow, the proposed method utilizes the ac load flow in order to model the real world condition. Furthermore, transmission tariffs have been used for modeling operation and investment costs. The approach is applied to IEEE 30-bus system. Comparing the results with that of risk analysis based approaches confirms advantages of the proposed method.