Theory of hantavirus infection spread incorporating localized adult and itinerant juvenile mice

摘要

A generalized model of the spread of the Hantavirus in mice populations is presented on the basis of recent observational findings concerning the movement characteristics of the mice that carry the infection. The factual information behind the generalization is based on mark-recapture observations reported in Giuggioli et al. [Bull. Math. Biol. 67, 1135 (2005)] that have necessitated the introduction of home ranges in the simple model of Hantavirus spread presented by Abramson and Kenkre [Phys. Rev. E 66, 11912 (2002)]. The essential feature of the model presented here is the existence of adult mice that remain largely confined to locations near their home ranges, and itinerant juvenile mice that are not so confined, and, during their search for their own homes, move and infect both other juveniles and adults that they meet during their movement. The model is presented at three levels of description: mean field, kinetic and configuration. Results of calculations are shown explicitly from the mean field equations and the simulation rules, and are found to agree in some respects and to differ in others. The origin of the differences is shown to lie in spatial correlations. It is indicated how mark-recapture observations in the field may be employed to verify the applicability of the theory.