A 30-year retrospective case analysis in the Delphi of cognitive rehabilitation therapy

摘要

In 1987, Parente used the Delphi method to predict changes in the field of cognitive rehabilitation therapy (CRT). Fifty licensed professionals provided predictions about the likely occurrence and probable time courses for 31 scenarios that could possibly have occurred over the 30-year interval between 1987 and 2000+. It has now been 30 years since the initial polling; thus, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of these Delphic predictions, via two validation methods. First, we contacted and reviewed statistical information from nationwide data bases (i.e., Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Brain Injury Association of America) to seeIfthe scenarios occurred. Second, we polled 12 additional professionals, most of whom had practiced in the field of CRT during the polling period and who still maintained an active practice to assessWhenthe various remaining scenarios had occurred. In this study, probability of occurrence accuracy was approximately 80%, although there was a significant bias towards false positives. Time course predictions were accurate within 1–5 years, although there was a general bias towards underestimating the occurrence of the events.