Comparative study of simulated annealing, tabu search, and the genetic algorithm for calibration of the microsimulation model

摘要

Microsimulation modeling is one of the contemporary techniques that has potential to perform complex transportation studies faster, safer, and in a less expensive manner. However, to get accurate and reliable results, the microsimulation models need to be well calibrated. Microsimulation model consists of various sub-models each having many parameters, most of which are user-adjustable and are attuned for calibrating the model. Manual calibration involves an iterative trial-and-error process of using the intuitive discrete values of each parameter and feasible combinations of multiple parameters each time until the desired results are obtained. With this approach, it is possible to easily get caught in a never-ending circular process of fixing one problem only to generate another. This can make manual calibration a time-consuming process and is suggested only when the number of parameters is small. However, when the calibration parameter subset is large, an automated process is suggested in the literature. Amongst the meta-heuristics used for calibrating microsimulation models, the genetic algorithm (GA) has been widely used and simulated annealing (SA) has been used only once in the past. Thus, the question of which meta-heuristics is more suitable for the problem of calibration of the microsimulation model still remains open. Thus, the objective of this paper is to evaluate and compare the manual and three (the GA, SA, and tabu search (TS)) meta-heuristics for calibration of microsimulation models. This paper therefore addresses the need to examine and identify the suitability of a meta-heuristics for calibrating microsimulation models. The results show that the meta-heuristics approach can be relied upon for calibrating simulation models very effectively, as it offers the benefit of automating the cumbersome calibrating process. All three meta-heuristics (the GA, SA, and TS) have the ability to find better calibrating parameters than the manually calibrated parameters. The number of better solutions, the best solution, and convergence to the best solution by TS is better than those by the GA and SA. Significant time can be saved by automating calibration of microsimulation models using meta-heuristics. The approach presented in this research can be used to help engineers and planners achieve better modeled results, as the calibration of microsimulation models is likely to become more complex in the future.