Probabilistic Assessment of Available Transfer Capability Based on Monte Carlo Method With Sequential Simulation

摘要

The objective of this paper is to assess the chronological variations in the available transfer capability (ATC) caused by uncertainties associated with hourly load fluctuations and equipment unavailabilities. The system states resulting from these uncertainties are generated using the Monte Carlo method with sequential simulation (MCMSS). The ATC for each generated state is evaluated through a linear dc optimal power flow (OPF). The test results, with a modified version of the IEEE Reliability Test System, demonstrate that the time-dependent uncertainties have a significant impact on the ATC. These effects have been assessed through statistical indexes such as expected values, box plot, and percentiles