Spatial Overflow Effect of Haze Pollution in China and Its Influencing Factors

摘要

The influencing factors of haze pollution aggravation were explored to further analyse the spatial distribution and overflow effect of haze pollution in China. The global Moran's / of haze pollution distribution was estimated based on the panel data of 30 provinces (including cities and municipalities) in China from 2003 to 2013, and the spatial autocorrelation of haze pollution in these 30 provinces was analysed. An index system of social and economic variables that influence haze pollution in China, which covers economy, population and policy, was established. Subsequently, the spatial correlation of haze pollution in China and its corresponding influencing factors were explored based on the extreme bounds analysis model. An empirical study was then conducted, which found that the global Moran's I fluctuated between 0.4 and 0.5 and achieved a 1% significance level, thereby indicating that haze pollution demonstrated strong spatial correlation. The robustness testing coefficient of the overflow effect (p) is relatively large, which shows that haze pollution exhibits a robust spatial overflow effect. Haze pollution in one region is frequently significantly influenced by haze pollution in adjacent regions. Haze concentration occurs in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and mid-east regions. Industrial structure, energy consumption structure, urban construction architecture, population dimension and car ownership have an anti-interference robustness effect on haze pollution. Conclusions of this study are not only significant for understanding the spatial distribution and spatial overflow effect of haze pollution in China and for identifying its main influencing factors, but can also provide references for the government to formulate haze control policies and enhance joint control of haze-affected regions.