Very Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Hybrid Algebraic Prediction and Support Vector Regression

摘要

This paper presents a model for very short-term load forecasting (VSTLF) based on algebraic prediction (AP) using a modified concept of the Hankel rank of a sequence. Moreover, AP is coupled with support vector regression (SVR) to accommodate weather forecast parameters for improved accuracy of a longer prediction horizon; thus, a hybrid model is also proposed. To increase system reliability during peak hours, this prediction model also aims to provide more accurate peak-loading conditions when considerable changes in temperature and humidity happen. The objective of going hybrid is to estimate an increase or decrease on the expected peak load demand by presenting the total MW per Celsius degree change (MW/C degrees) as criterion for providing a warning signal to system operators to prepare necessary storage facilities and sufficient reserve capacities if urgently needed by the system. The prediction model is applied using actual 2014 load demand of mainland South Korea during the summer months of July to September to demonstrate the performance of the proposed prediction model.